Multi-Scenario Land Use Change Simulation and Spatial Response of Ecosystem Service Value in Black Soil Region of Northeast China

Simulating the spatial response of ecosystem service value (ESV) caused by land use change in Heilongjiang Province under different scenarios future is great significance for ensuring ecological security and sustainable development region. Province, an important grain-producing region China, taken as research area this study. Five maps (2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, 2020) were used to evaluate past 20 years. In addition, each type was predicted Markov model MOP model, pattern simulated based on PLUS ESV calculated, distribution degree clustering further explored. The results show that: (1) During 2000–2020, built-up continued grow, with a total increase 5076 km2 during 20-year period, water unused gradually decreased, farmland forest changed less. (2) study 2000, 2020 1320.8 billion yuan, 1334.5 1342.1 1327.6 1328.4 respectively. Generally, it shows fluctuating trend. (3) natural scenario (NDS), economic priority (ERS) protection (EPS) are 1334.3 1254.8 yuan 1455.6 quite different. (4) higher northwest, central, southeast, lower east west. hot cold spots widely distributed polymerization high. methods conclusions can provide scientific reference optimization national formulation policy.